THE PRICE OF WAR AND THE PRICE OF PEACE
When word was given that the German Empire had declared war, it was known that she had nine hundred thousand men at a cost of two hundred and fifty million dollars on hand. But the mobilization of her several million troops at the end of the first week increased the cost to many times that amount. This did not frighten her, as her chest at Spandau had been swelled from thirty millions to ninety millions. This was enough to last for three months. When it was found out the other day that the war would last for some months longer, the National Bank of Germany, along with many other German banks, raised enough money on bonds to keep Germany going until after Christmas, without making a war loan, though the cost to France and England is somewhat less individually, still it amounts to nearly the same when the two countries are taken together. A conservative cost of the war per day is fifteen millions, of which Germany is said to spent eight millions.
Paul Leroy-Beaulieu, the French economist, estimates that each of the greater belligerents is spending an average equivalent to $200,000,000 monthly.
In presenting these figures to the Academy of Moral and Political Sciences today (October 17th), he said that he considered it probable that the war would continue for seven months from August 1st.
Accordingly, the five greater powers engaged were committed to an expenditure of $7,000,000,000. Each of the smaller states, including Japan, will have expenses of from $600,000,000 to $800,000,000 to meet.
"One might say that the war will cost the fighting powers roughly from $9,000,000,000 to $10,000,000,000," M. Leroy-Beaulieu continued. "These figures, which do not take into account the losses of revenue during hostilities, will be met.
"The larger part of the savings of the world will be absorbed by the taking up of national loans, and economic progress will be seriously checked."
These figures are only a small part of the entire cost. It is not unusual to read of thirty to fifty thousand men being slaughtered in one great engagement, and about the same number being taken prisoners.
Germany has in three months already put more than three millions into actual combat, with a reserve of two millions, and she can raise ten millions if necessary. On the other hand, the allies say if Paris is lost it must be retaken; if one million of allied reinforcements are not enough to accomplish it, there will be two millions and three millions.
These numbers represent the flower of European civilization, for only the sane and healthy are valued in war. These men include hundreds of the ablest scientists from the Pasteur Institute in Paris, from the private and government laboratories in Berlin, Frankfurt and Freiburg.
Along with these are the great professors of all the sciences and the liberal arts, many of whom are world-renowned in the great universities of Europe. Included in this magnificent rank and file are the painters, sculptors, musicians, along with the celebrated architects. These men rise to the tens and hundred thousands, and every time one of these men goes down we are reminded of the fact that he may never be replaced, and it will take many centuries to give back a little of the culture and genius they represent.
But the backbone of a nation is its agricultural force. The German farmers and foresters are a pride to their nation. Nearly every one of these has been called or volunteered in the ranks and files, and already many thousands have been food for the cannon and guns. Their wives and children are trying hard to do their part to replace the work, but all they can give is a feeble effort.
The same is true of France, which has the richest fields in the world. Most of the soil yields two harvests. These farmers take wonderful pride in their farms and truck-gardens, and when the great painters, Millet and Corot, dedicated their genius, they found worthy subjects for their brush. I have traveled through miles of this farmland in France, and its beauty was a splendid poem of what God had helped man to do. Much of the rich vineyard and champagne country has been destroyed by war and neglect, and it will take years of hard toil before it can be repaired.
When this war was less than two months old, whole towns, such as Louvain, Bruges and Rheims had been laid in waste. This destruction has meant the loss of thousands of homes, public buildings, churches and cathedrals, and priceless works of art.
It has also meant the destruction of many miles of railroad, river and ocean transportation, and the closing of thousands of factories.
It has called forth a sudden demand for certain quantities of ammunition, horses, wagons, hospital supplies, fuel, food and clothing, with a great increase in prices on these products.
Credit, which has been the natural and easiest way to carry on business between individuals and nations, has been put at naught. As a result, paper and silver have depreciated in value, and people begin to want gold, for in war gold is the only medium of exchange one can be sure of. Unfortunately, at the present time, there is not enough gold to do the world's business, and owners of securities, day after day, have been trying to sell their stocks and bonds for gold.
In many countries the governments have had to declare moratorium, which means that none need pay their rent and debts until further notice.
The world's trade has been paralyzed; as a result, most of the stock exchanges of the world have had to shut down. The New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade are included in this number, because if they kept open the foreign countries would exchange their shares and bonds for gold, and much of our gold would be carried to the other side.
Because of our added diplomatic responsibilities abroad, we have had to raise one million dollars, and also two and a half millions for the Americans stranded on the other side. Many of our factories have closed because they dealt in a heavy export trade and for which at present there is no demand. Most noticeable in these trades are the manufactures of cotton, of metal, agricultural and other machinery, copper and lubricating oils. Many others of our industries are without the goods which they import from abroad, including silks, wines, hides and skins, dyes, nitrate of soda, china, etc.
This war has been such a jar to industrial conditions that many manufacturers are reducing their daily output considerably, while others who have a capital are afraid to invest, and are hoarding it in the banks.
Though it is impossible to say how long this war will last, one thing is sure, the loss to trades the world over is great and will increase as time goes on. Worse still than the loss of trade and productive labor is the fact that actual capital is being destroyed, being really burned up.
When the war is over there will be an enormous war debt to pay, and the loans on money will be high. This destruction of wealth and property means that many of the countries of the world will be poor for fifty years at least, and the value of railroad and other stocks in America and Europe will depreciate.
When the men of the world return to work, there will be a great fall in prices because of the greater amount of productive work, and it may result in a fall, at least a temporary fall in wages, though wages will increase after things are once more established. This war may be a boon to the financial and industrial life of our country and give us many new marts of trade in commerce, but while the war lasts it will mean financial strain and hard times in many industries. It certainly will cripple European life, civilization and culture for fifty years.
The game of war is a dangerous and expensive one; it means the building of great war-boats, torpedoes and other submarines, as well as air-destroyers, along with the manufacture of bombs, mines, powder, etc. This war shows that the game is being played on such colossal scale that it may take many millions every year to add to the army, navy and air-craft. It is not to be forgotten that a great man-of-war costs from three to five million dollars, and a good torpedo boat many hundred thousands. The shooting of a cannon ball of a siege-gun means an expenditure of three thousand dollars for each fire, and it takes four shots to pierce a heavy fortification. The siege-gun can only be used about thirty times, and then it is useless. If this game of war is to be continued, it will mean the burning up of capital, depriving men and women of every luxury and many necessities for much of the energy of the world, and no less of the money must be used to that end. Do you not hear a song more beautiful than the cries and groans of war? Do you not hear the call of life and creation, the making of more homes and the caring for those homes? Many hundred years ago men knew the game of war and practiced it, because they were savages, and in this way earned their livelihood. It was only after they rose from savages and barbarians to civilized men that they laid their bows and arrows aside to cultivate the arts of peace. On all sides are seen results of this work – in busy factories, in the laying of cables, in the building of railroads, in their engineering feats, and in the stretching of wires overhead. Their towns grew until they became cities and capitals, made splendid by fine pavements and sidewalks, adorned with many handsome public buildings, gates, fountains, statues, etc. A testimony of all this beauty and energy is seen in such capitals as Berlin, Paris, London and Washington. These cities have given pleasure to millions of people, and this beauty has had large commercial value to these countries. These capitals are a pride to the people who live there, and a never-forgotten pleasure to those who have spent happy days visiting their libraries, picture galleries, museums and gardens. Two of these cities, Berlin and Paris, are splendid examples of what can be done where there is plenty of civic pride. Berlin is a symbol of law and order in its large, well-kept streets, splendid gardens and imposing public buildings. Paris is a woman's city – it breathes with joy and artistic grace. This note is symbolized on a sunny afternoon at the Place de la Concorde, and in the Bois in the springtime, when you see thousands of happy children at play.
These two cities, along with our own beautiful capital adorned with its many handsome avenues, public buildings and private mansions, testify for uplift and civic pride. It will be impossible to have many beautiful cities and to improve our civic conditions if we go on playing this awful game of war, which means the destruction of capital and what man has made. But if we disarm and make other nations disarm after gratifying the most immediate needs, there will be plenty of money left for libraries, great and small, libraries for the city, and libraries for the town, for museums and galleries, for public universities, for parks and gardens adorned with statues and fountains, for the building of bridges and the making of good roads. These are the things that are beautiful and worth while. They are the complement to nature's work and God's work, and the sun will glorify them during the day and the stars will bless them at night, for creation and not destruction is the purpose of this universe.
SOME QUESTIONS ANSWERED AS TO THE CAUSES OF THE WAR
The questions uppermost in the minds of many people are: "How will the war end? When will it end? Who is in the right? and Who is in the wrong?"
Since our country has declared neutrality, there is only one thing for every sensible American to do – to have sympathy for every man who has been called to the front, and for every family left worrying and in want at home.
There are a number of questions that enter into this war. Foremost among these is militarism. There is not a country at war today that believes that a government is made for its people, their theory being that a people belongs to its government. Therefore it is the interest of the country, not the interest of the individual, that counts. This idea is part and parcel of the old feudal form of government, where there were a few mighty feudal lords and many vassals or dependents. These dependents lived on the estates of their lords and got their sustenance from them. In turn they had to swear life and death allegiance to their lords, fight for them in times of danger, accompany them on crusades and amuse them in time of peace in jousts and tournaments.
Though feudalism as a form of government is no longer fashionable, it still survives in spirit. Thousands of men are employed in Europe in different ways by their governments or by their monarchs, and they are in honor bound to fight for these kings and princes. In times of danger, these men are employed on railroads belonging to the government, working in palaces or on royal estates, or in the army. There are many old towns in Europe where you see feudal palaces perched on high hills or overhanging crags. These were protected by drawbridges, moats or great encircling walls. All that remain of their past glory are the deserted ruins, mouldered walls and drawbridges, but the spirit of these feudal rulers still remains. They now live in capitals in the winter and on lovely estates in the summer. They have from five to twenty estates apiece. Many of these places are only used a few weeks out of the year. Their permanent residences are adorned with priceless furniture, tapestries and ornaments. These are kept up by a retinue of servants, while even those that are occupied for a short time call for plenty of care and expense for their maintenance.
Hard though it is to believe, there are palaces that have been twenty years in the process of building and are still not completed. When a new monarch comes to the throne it is not unusual to have his palace refurnished from top to bottom. Entertaining at these courts means a great expenditure of money, for their china-closets are crowded with priceless china, finest glass, silver and gold service for all occasions. Though the menus planned for any of these state affairs are costly, the great extravagance comes in the fine wine-cellars, rare fruits, and the hot-house flowers used for decorations. I have walked over royal estates for a half-day without reaching their limit. The place included summer houses, pagodas, alleys, private promenades, stables and carriage-houses.
More than one royal stable in Europe has more than two hundred royal carriages. Among these are coronation coaches, state coaches, funeral coaches, guest coaches and private coaches. The finest of these are lacquered with silver and gold, while the harnesses and whips are made of real silver and gold. The private carriages include landaus, victorias, and a great number of fine automobiles. Many of these are used only a year or two, and then are sold or exchanged for others.
Even more splendid are the stables, which include fine horses and beautiful ponies gathered from many parts of Europe and the Orient. The caring of these horses involves much work and cost. I have seen as many as a hundred men at work caring for one of these royal stables. Some of these horses have rare pedigrees and need excellent care. They are not used on all occasions – some are kept for state functions, others for private use, and still others for military practice.
A court is not complete without handsome coronation jewels to be worn at coronations and great state balls. These include priceless crowns studded with diamonds, pearls, sapphires; vieing with these are ropes of pearls, pearl and diamond rings, high orders set with diamonds, rubies and emeralds, and gold swords with hilts set with brilliants and rubies.
A country might have all these things, and still she would be lacking in dignity unless she had her own royal guard. These stand watch day and night to guard the palace, and to change guards is accompanied with so much ceremony that it often takes an hour's time. If it takes a royal guard of nearly a thousand men to protect a palace, it requires a good-sized standing army and navy to protect any of these royal countries. The newest of these countries can boast that her army is not an integral part of her government. Even France, which is a republic in name, is a military form of government; it is the army and the army man that has the last word to say.
A part of this royal system of government is colonization. Just as Spain counted her power and wealth in her colonies, so do most of the other European powers do so today. England gets much of her strength and wealth from her colonies – they work for her, give her men in times of danger, and permit her to control the channel with courage and boats. Her imperialism gave her the courage to tell us that she claimed certain rights to the Panama Canal because of the Hay-Pauncefote treaty. Though India and Canada have brought her much wealth and strength, many say that she has looked upon Java, Holland's rich possession, with an envious eye, while much of her friendship for France is based on her African possessions.
Though France has not an enormous population, she always speaks of her need of more territory which she has found in Morocco, while even the smaller countries, such as Belgium and Holland, have valued their colonies as their greatest prize.
Germany is the last of the great powers to look for colonies. This she has done because she found her own territory too small for her growing population. After looking about carefully, she found out the easiest way to enlarge her territory was to get more control in Africa. The question was finally settled when France gave her a small part of the Congo. This was done almost at the price of the sword and the bayonet, and France and England then decided that they would cry halt if Germany tried for any other extension of territory in Africa. At the same time France had not forgotten that she had given Alsace-Lorraine to Germany by the treaty of 1871, and she hoped to get it back again some time in the future.
Russia and Austria had not been friends for many years, and Germany increased this feeling for herself when she made an alliance with Austria in 1879. Russia had always looked upon Austria as her chief enemy, and she was greatly irritated by Germany's alliance. Russia thought by joining hands with France she would offset the power of Germany and Austria. The Triple Entente thus faced the Triple Alliance.
England, isolated from the continent of Europe, was not worried by the triple alliance until she saw Germany spring up as a great commercial nation. She looked upon Germany as her chief commercial rival, for she saw the trade-mark "Made in England" gradually being supplanted by that "Made in Germany."
English merchants managed to tolerate German merchants in the markets of Europe, but when England saw that Germany was beginning to build up a strong sea-power, she was determined to offset her by courting the dual alliance of France and Russia. The terms of her agreement with these two powers have never been published, but it was probably arranged that if Russia or France should ever get in any serious difficulty, England would mediate for them. This was to be a protection to England, and a check to Germany on the one side and the Balkan states on the other. For Servia had not forgotten that Austria had annexed Bosnia and Herzegovnia in 1908. By stepping forward in the list against Austria, Servia became, as it were, a protector to the Balkans, and a thorn in the side of Austria. She did this because Bosnia is inhabited by people of Serb speech. Russia, while acting as a protector of Servia, saw the advantage of using Servia as a cat's-paw. The murder of the Austrian prince and princess by the Servian government, backed by Russian influence, was merely the match that set the powers of Europe fighting together. Whether the conflagration should spread beyond Servia depended on Austria and Russia's attitude. Austria hoped to confine the fight to Servia, while Russia showed her warlike attitude by mobilization. In mobilizing, Russia showed a hostile attitude toward Austria and Germany. After the Russian general mobilization became known in Germany, the imperial ambassador at St. Petersburg was instructed, on the 31st of July, to explain to the Russian government that Germany declared the state of war as counter-measure against the general mobilization of the Russian army and navy, which must be followed by mobilization if Russia did not cease its military measures against Germany and Austria-Hungary within twelve hours, and notified Germany thereof.
As the time then given to Russia had expired without the receipt of reply to the Emperor's inquiry, the Emperor ordered the mobilization of the entire army and navy on August the first at five p. m. The German ambassador at St. Petersburg was instructed that in the event of the Russian government not giving a satisfactory reply within the stated time, he should declare that Germany considered itself in a state of war after a refusal of her demands. However, a confirmation of the execution of this order had been received, Russian troops crossed the frontier, and marched into German territory. A few hours later France mobilized, and the next day opened hostilities.
There were still hopes that England would come to the fore and settle the dispute. She said that she would remain neutral, providing Germany did not touch French coast, Russian coast, and respected the neutrality of Belgium. But Germany did not see how to make this promise and still meet her two formidable enemies, and thus a world-war began.
Just as it will take time to say who will be the winner and who the loser by this war, so it will take time to say who was responsible for this condition. For nations as well as for individuals, supremacy becomes mere madness when it is gained by guns and battleships. This bellicose system may once have been popular when piracy and feudalism prevailed, but this military peace, which trembles and rumbles all the time, forewarns earthquakes.
It was an American who made the peace palace a reality. It must be America again who will make eternal peace more than a promise. When the time comes for the stopping of this awful carnage and bloodshed, America must insist that every nation in the world shall lay down her arms and that they shall change their men-of-war into merchant marines for the benefit of mankind. This is the fulfillment of the building of the Panama Canal.