Gambit

VI

Several thousand miles away, Jim Carmichael received a phone call at home from his signals people. “Sir, we are receiving word of a detonation just outside of Tehran. From the looks of it, this happened within the hour.”

“Do we have any details on this as yet?”

“Sir, it’s conventional, but it’s huge. Brigadier General John Anderson out at Cheyenne Mountain called in the initial report. If they picked it up, it had to be big. Looks like someone took out an entire city block on the outskirts of Tehran. Preliminary reports are saying that the Israelis just took out Ali Bagheri.”

“What?!? He was leading their negotiating team in Bern. Why would they do that? What the hell are they thinking? Okay… Stonewall Jackson is supposed to be in Tel Aviv. Try and raise him. It’s what, about 5:00 a.m. over there? Keep trying until you get ahold of him. I’ll be in early in the morning, unless something else develops; keep me posted.”

“Yes, sir.”

* * *

Jackson had not been with the Agency long enough to have the clout to call up the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), and since he had seriously exceeded his orders, he figured he’d be better off starting with his own superior – and friend – James Carmichael. He had known Jim Carmichael for more than fifteen years now, dating to September of 2001. Jim had lead a CIA team – the Northern Alliance Liaison Team – that entered Afghanistan very soon after the assassination of General Ahmad Shah Massoud, known in Afghanistan as the Lion of Panjshir. Massoud commanded the Northern Alliance and had been seeking the CIA’s assistance in fighting the Taliban for a number of years. The combination of his assassination on September 9th, 2001, and the attacks in New York and Washington D.C., two days later, ironically, cemented the deal for this assistance. Indeed, the afternoon of September 11th, the director of the CIA ordered the establishment of a team to support the Northern Alliance with all means necessary to defeat the Taliban and root out and kill Osama Bin Laden and his Al Qaeda cohorts. The Clandestine Services Division jumped into high gear: Word quickly went out to the Army’s Special Operations Command looking for anyone from the Special Forces’ Fifth Group who would be willing to join the team – they’d still be active duty, just temporarily attached to the Agency. Thomas Jackson, then a bright, young and eager captain in the special operations community, had signed up as soon as word went out for volunteers. Two weeks after the World Trade Center collapsed, Carmichael, Jackson and the rest of the team was in Afghanistan and working in the Panjshir valley.

Stonewall knew his little trek into Tehran had stretched things more than a little but he also knew that Jim was not one to dwell on technicalities when one obtained the desired results – and Jackson knew he had just delivered. Now, he needed to get those results to those who could actually act upon them.

“Stonewall, where have you been? We’ve been trying to get ahold of you for the past several hours. Do you have any idea as to what is going on over there? It seems the Israelis have just assassinated Ali Bagheri, the deputy secretary of their Supreme National Security Council.”

“Jim, back up a bit. Ali Bagheri is out of the picture as far as Iran is concerned – because he just defected to the Israelis. I’ve been on the mission to pick him up in Tehran – I’ll tell you more about that later. The bombing you’ve seen was designed to make the Iranians think that Bagheri is dead; in fact, he’s sitting right here with me now.”

“Wait a minute; you were in Tehran?”

“I’ll explain later. The real issue is just how far along the Iranians are to achieving a nuclear bomb. Jim, they’ll have the bomb in the next couple of months. If I was a betting man, now that the Israelis have their source out of the country, they’ll be attacking any time; they may already have the strike force warmed up. They already have the EW planes forward deployed to Baku. Jim, the Israelis are attacking – it’s just a question of how soon.”

This was a lot of information all at once, even for someone as experienced as Jim Carmichael.

“Are you sure of this? This is way off of what we’ve predicted. And the Israelis; Tamir hasn’t even dropped a clue to me.”

“Sir, I’ve spent the last several hours talking with Bagheri. His information all checks out. There is no way any of this is disinformation; not from him. We grabbed his laptops, desk top computer and cell phone to verify everything but, sir, everything checks out. You’ll need to check with the Pentagon to see what assets we have in the region. As soon as we touch down in Tel Aviv the Israelis are going to be free to attack as they feel they have nothing left to lose.”

“Well, the extent of what we can or will do is beyond our call, but I’ll be getting this information up to the DNI, the national security advisor, the secdef, and the president as soon as we hang up. We have some resources in the area – we’ve kept a carrier in the gulf since ’03 and I know we have something in the Med, I’m just not sure what all we have there. Give me a call after you’ve landed and have had a chance to talk with Pardo. I know the Israelis have not been sitting on the sidelines diplomatically should they decide to attack on their own. No one in the region wants the mad mullahs of Iran to have the Bomb and all are content to let Israel do the heavy lifting. I know they have had some discussions with the Turks and it sounds like you know more than the rest of us about their relationship with the Azerbaijanis. Aside from that, I don’t know of anyone who would actually assist them with an attack but most in the region will certainly look the other way.”

“Okay, will do Jim. It’s about a two hour flight so I’ll give you a call later this afternoon or early evening my time; that should be right about noon on the east coast.”

“Okay, I’ll be expecting your call. Let me know what Pardo is thinking and just how soon the Israelis might go.”

“Sir, if I read this right, they’re already locked and loaded.”

“Yeah, that’s my thinking too. Let me know what you find out. I’ll set up the meetings with the White House, the national security counselor and the rest of the national security team for later this morning; if you can call back before, say five this afternoon your time, I’d have a little time to go over everything before I brief them.”

“Okay, I’ll get back to you as soon as I can.”

* * *

“Ben, I know you probably don’t know the answer to this question, for obvious reasons, but just how soon do you really think the IDF will launch their attack?”

“Well, we should be landing in around two hours. They’ll want a little time to debrief Bagheri, say about three hours, and that puts it right around 6:00 p.m. our time. Given the complexity of the attack, I would assume that the Air Force would prefer to launch and refuel in daylight – that’s just a guess, not being an airedale myself. As such, I would expect them to launch about twelve hours later, or six in the morning… but that’s just a guess.”

“Okay, that’s kind of what I suspected; no reason to wait now.”

As soon as the team’s plane landed, Dani and Ben escorted Jackson in to see General Pardo. “So, Stonewall, what did you think of your little trip?” Pardo asked him.

“I have to thank you for the opportunity to join the party; it was quite the trip. I must say, it was not quite what I expected when you offered it to me.”

“Well, I couldn’t exactly fill you in on all of the details but I’m glad you were able to go. I realize you don’t know the disposition of your fleet, but could you relay a message for us? You see, now that we have Bagheri, all of our assets are safe; we can attack at will. We’ve already positioned several of our tankers and EW aircraft along the route; in fact, you may have seen some of them in Baku. We aren’t looking for any assistance from you with the strike; we believe we can handle that on our own. In retrospect, our strike on the Syrian nuclear site of Dayr az-Zawr actually served as a nice practice run. However, we would really like to know if we could at least count on US support in some manner. We know you have one carrier, the Roosevelt, I believe, in the Mediterranean and another in the Persian Gulf, the George Washington, with a third, the John C Stennis on the way to relieve the Washington. We are not sure what other ships might be accompanying these carriers but we are not asking for help with your navy fighters. Rather, we’d like to know if we could count on your navy’s support should any of our pilots have to ditch either in the gulf or the Mediterranean. Also, if in the unfortunate circumstance, any of our pilots were to be shot down, would your navy be available to go in and rescue them? I know that is asking a great deal but it would be a nice gesture if the United States government could do this.”

Left unsaid was the simple fact that, in all likelihood, the Iranians would lash out at the American fleet in the gulf and try to hit one of their vaunted carriers with the new Sunburn missiles Russia had provided them. The Sunburn is a radar-guided anti-ship missile, capable of being fired from the air, land or sea, making it an extremely versatile – and dangerous – weapon. The Russian version of the Sunburn had a range of one hundred miles – no one knew if the Iranians had modified this – carried a powerful 750 pound warhead, and flew very fast at Mach 3—at that speed, it could travel the hundred miles in less than three minutes! Any anti-missile defenses the navy had would have a very limited time in which to respond. The French made Exocet missile, by comparison, which the Argentinians used in the Falklands War back in the 80’s, only carried a 350 pound warhead, and flew at less than half the speed of the Sunburn. However, the Argentines still managed to sink two British destroyers with the Exocet. Clearly, the Sunburn posed a very clear threat to any vessels in the gulf – and an American carrier posed a very tempting target.

“Well, sir, it would seem that you know more about our fleet’s disposition than I do, but I will most definitely pass this on. Actually, if you’d have a secure phone, I’d like to call my boss right away and fill him in on everything.”

Pardo handed Jackson the phone; he was not too surprised to hear that the phone was already ringing.

“Tamir, is that you?” asked Jim Carmichael, having General Pardo’s number in his speed dial.

“No, sir, it’s me, Stonewall. Jim, how soon can we get the Roosevelt through the Suez Canal and into the Arabian Sea and the Stennis to the gulf? Tamir has shared their operational plans with me and it seems that all assets are in place – and like I mentioned earlier, their EW aircraft are already forward deployed. I can’t get into a lot of detail for obvious reasons but Tamir told me to tell you to remember Dayr az-Zawr in Syria. Jim, the Israelis are ready to rock; they’ll be airborne before first light. Tamir isn’t asking for any assistance in the attack – he believes they can handle that themselves – but, ostensibly, he would like to know if he could count on any CSAR” – Combat Search and Rescue – “support from the carriers both in the gulf and the Med if any pilots are shot down during the raid. Plus, the Washington needs to be ready for any retaliation from Iran – and they will retaliate.”

“This is for real, right? I mean, this isn’t a hypothetical thing, is it?”

“No, sir; this is the real thing. They’ll be launching in about twelve hours or so. They’re ready to rock.”

“Okay, this is what I need. I’ll be briefing the president and the rest of the national security team in half an hour. The vice president, though, is out of town at the moment. Tell Tamir ‘thanks for the heads up’ on this one. Oh,… and Stonewall, the next time you decide to join a raiding party in a hostile country, at least let me know what you’re up to; you don’t need to necessarily ask permission, but it would be nice to tell your next of kin that you at least died in the line of duty.”

“Okay, will do sir.”

“Well, Tamir, I guess we wait and see,” said Jackson, turning to General Pardo.

VII

Washington, D. C.

This was not Jim Carmichael’s first visit to the White House; over the past few years, he had made several visits here and had given several briefings as well. However, this one was different. The current administration had based their entire Iranian policy on their preconceived notion that economic sanctions would completely solve the nuclear issue. As the chairman of the CIA’s Intelligence Directorate, Carmichael knew otherwise – and had repeatedly said as much; it was the politicians who didn’t want to listen, or really believe, what was really happening. He had given his boss, Felix Jones, the director of national intelligence, a heads up on this morning’s meeting – essentially a condensed Reader’s Digest version – though he had not fully briefed him as yet on all of the details. He knew he was going to get some push-back – especially from State and the White House – on their, read “his”, failure to really determine just how far along the Iranians were on their nuclear ambitions but all that was a mute-point at this stage of the game.

Jim rode in the DNI’s limo on the way to the White House and briefly updated Jones on the latest developments from Stonewall.

“Here’s the latest: I just heard from Stonewall; the Israelis will be attacking tomorrow. I guess for that matter, their planes will be taking off in about ten hours. I already let ‘Axe’ know” – referring to Eric Axelsson, the secretary of defense – “that the Fifth Fleet should be expecting some company very soon. I didn’t give him any specifics – didn’t really have any at the time as this was before Jackson’s latest call – but the Pentagon’s been put on notice. Axe and the chairman will be at the White House so they’ll receive the latest information at the same time everyone else will.”

“Jackson’s sure this is the real thing, right? I mean, State’s going to come unglued that their ambassador hasn’t been clued in on any of this.”

“Well, we’ve warned them about the deteriorating conditions with our relationship with the Israelis. This is exactly why I sent Stonewall over there – he’s essentially my personal representative to Tamir. I had a feeling something was coming down and they weren’t comfortable enough with State to let them know. I didn’t think it would amount to their attacking Iran, but I had a feeling something was in the works.”

“Well, let’s go,” Jones said as their limo arrived at the White House. “Don’t be surprised if both State and the chief of staff hit you up on failing to pick up on Iran’s nuke program.”

“I’m expecting that. The real issue here is the Israeli’s pending attack; I won’t let them diverge from that.”

“You do that, and I’ll be there as well to help you out should one of them try and get you off track. After all, we weren’t the only ones who underestimated the Iranians: MI6, the KGB… hell every intelligence network not named Mossad missed this.”

“Yeah, but we’re supposed to be better than all the rest, right?” Carmichael responded.

“Keep telling yourself that,” Jones replied. “Remember, the other….”

“I know, I know… the other guy wants to hide his activities as much as we want to figure them out.”

As they walked into the White House, Carmichael noticed that they were the last ones to show up – everyone else’s limousines were already in the lot.

“Off to a great start already – looks like we’re the last one’s here.”

“Yeah, I noticed that, too. Well, might as well get the show started,” Jones added as they approached the Situation Room.

Sure enough, Carmichael noticed: everyone was here, that is, everyone except President Barre… and the front podium was empty. Jim walked right to the podium and Jones took his seat at the middle of the conference table. No sooner had he gotten his briefing outline pulled up on his iPad than the president walked in and took his seat.

“Good morning,” President Barre said to those seated around the table. “I understand we have something pressing so I won’t take up any of your time Jim; you can proceed whenever you’re ready.”

“Thank you, Mr. President,” Carmichael replied. “I received a call from Colonel Tom Jackson first thing this morning. Tom’s an assistant of mine that is acting as a liaison for me with General Tamir Pardo, the head of Mossad. It seems that the Israelis have had a very high level asset in Tehran. This morning, they managed to smuggle him out of Iran. We all know him, or at least know of him, as it’s none other than Dr. Ali Bagheri, the deputy secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and the man who led their negotiation team in Bern.”

“Ali Bagheri is Mossad’s source on all of this?” asked Secretary of State Andrea Johnson.

“That’s correct. Jackson called me from Baku just as they were flying back to Tel Aviv. The team set off a car bomb in Bagheri’s driveway to cover their tracks – and completely took out both the house and the garage – there is literally nothing left. In fact, NORAD actually picked up the detonation so the explosion had to be massive. Obviously, the Israelis want Tehran to believe Bagheri is completely out of the picture. However, what is more important is that Jackson also noticed that the Israeli Air Force has prepositioned four of their advanced EW aircraft at Baku. I called Axe as soon as I got off the phone with Jackson and let him know that things could get real hot for our folks in the Persian Gulf.”

“I let Admiral Fischer know of the possibility of any action and I’ve ordered the Teddy Roosevelt to make best possible speed to the gulf,” interjected Axelsson.

“Good, because we’re going to need the firepower,” Carmichael replied. “Jackson went straight to General Pardo when he arrived back in Tel Aviv. With their asset now cleanly out of Iran, the Israelis will be attacking at dawn tomorrow morning. In fact, their planes will be taking off in roughly ten hours or so.”

“What?!?” Tom Fleming, the White House chief of staff, and Secretary of State Andrea Johnson blurted out in unison.

“You’ve got to be kidding?” added in Pamela McDowell, President Barre’s national security advisor.

“I wish I was,” Carmichael replied. “You see, the Iranians are only a couple months away from fielding a nuclear bomb – if even that long. Jackson managed to discuss Iran’s nuclear ambitions with Dr. Bagheri for several hours; they are much farther along than we thought possible. The Israelis wanted to get their asset out before they attacked – and they just accomplished this so the attack will commence as soon as practical.”

“How did you miss this?” McDowell demanded.

The “you” of McDowell’s question did not escape Carmichael, nor Jones.

“Damn near everyone missed this, except the Israelis. We’d been reporting that the Iranians were probably farther along than we expected, though we did not think they were this close,” Jones immediately replied.

“You also told us that the economic sanctions would work!” Secretary of State Johnson interjected.

“No, we said that the sanctions would work as part of an overall strategy. However, you have instead allowed the sanctions to be our entire strategy – and we told you, this would not work,” Jones emphasized. “Our diplomatic strategy, aside from the sanctions, has been pretty weak. We’ve always warned that the Iranians were going to pursue the bomb regardless of any sanctions. A bigger stick was needed rather than simply relying on sanctions.”

“And just how do we know that your assistant, Colonel Thomas Jackson, is reliable? The Israelis haven’t said ‘boo’ to our ambassador in Tel Aviv. It would seem to me that if they haven’t bothered to tell our ambassador, and go through our official channels, they are simply trying to embarrass us.”

“Andrea, they haven’t told our ambassador as you wouldn’t believe them even if they did,” Jones shot back.

“Ambassador Richards is a very trusted supporter of the president, and has been so for years,” added Fleming. “If the Israelis are really serious about this planned attack, there is no reason they couldn’t have notified him.”

“Tom, even if they had told Ambassador Richards, not only would you not have believed him, this administration is so tuned into economic sanctions that we probably would not have even listened. As for Jackson – he’s as reliable and trust-worthy as they come,” Carmichael interjected. “He’s been a member of the Fifth Group, Special Forces, for many years – three of those years he led the CIF team for the group – and has his doctorate in Persian studies. He’s been monitoring the Iranians for several years. Finally, he was a part of the mission to grab Dr. Bagheri and get him out of Iran.”

“Wait a minute! We had US troops on the ground in Iran?!?” Pam McDowell demanded.

“No, we had one Special Forces officer accompany an Israeli Sayeret Matkal team on the ground in Iran.”

“Who authorized this? Eric, did you authorize this?” Tom Fleming demanded of the secretary of defense.

“Jackson has been on temporary assignment to the CIA for a little while, so, no, I did not know about it.”

“Colonel Jackson is one of very few men we have suitable for just such a mission,” interjected General Stan Kaufman, chairman of the Joint Chiefs. “Jackson has served with the Fifth Group for more than fifteen years and has served several tours in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Between his military training and his academics, he’s as qualified as anyone for a mission of this type.”

“So then, Felix,” Fleming asked turning to the DNI, and totally ignoring the general’s comments, “did you authorize this?”

“Actually, Tom, I’m the one who gave Stonewall his orders – and I gave him a wide degree of latitude to pursue his objective,” Carmichael answered before his boss had a chance to say anything. “However, the issue here is not who may have exceeded their orders or to pronounce the eulogy of a failed policy. Rather, the Israelis will be launching their raid in something like ten hours from now. We need to be ready.”

“Eric, what’s the disposition of the Navy?” President Barre asked.

“I put the Fifth Fleet on notice as soon as I received Jim’s call. We have the Washington currently in the gulf and the Stennis in the Arabian Sea on the way to relieve them. The Roosevelt is in the Med on its way to the Suez Canal. They can be in striking range in just a few days. In addition, we have an Amphibious Ready Group in the gulf as well, centered around the San Antonio. Unfortunately, we’ve allowed our forces at Al Udeid to dwindle quite a bit. All we have there are a couple squadrons of drones and an F-15 squadron. For the moment, the Eagles will be on standby to assist the Washington in the gulf and essentially guard their rear flank as the Washington Battle Group heads towards Doha.”

“Can the Washington take care of herself? I don’t want to hand the Iranians any PR victories by having them put a hole in one of our carriers,” President Barre asked.

“Sir, once the missiles start flying, it’s a whole new ball game. However, that being said, she can take care of herself, even in the narrow confines of the gulf. And with two carriers, and a third on the way, we’ll be able to assure the world that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open.”

“Okay, get word out to the Fifth Fleet.”

“I’ll do that, sir, but what are the rules of engagement?”

“Each officer has the authority to do what is necessary for the safety of his command. The Iranians are going to be thoroughly pissed and I’m sure they will strike out at the fleet. If we need to take out the entire Iranian Navy and Air Force, then that is what we need to do.”

“What about offensive operations, sir?” Axelsson followed up. “Can I tell Admiral Fischer that he can conduct any operations inside Iran? The gulf is exceptionally narrow for defensive operations. I’d like to let Fischer and Admiral Ramsey, the commanding officer of the Fifth Fleet, conduct operations inside Iran if they even get a hint of possible action against them. If they have to wait until a threat extends beyond Iran’s territorial waters, their options will be seriously restricted.”

“Mr. President,” Andrea Johnson interrupted, “if we invade Iran’s air space, we will have lost all deniability on the world stage, and it will look as though we were actually behind this attack. I’m sorry but we cannot allow the Navy to attack Iran. This is an Israeli operation and we should have no part of it. If the Navy stays by Doha they should be out of range of Iran’s capabilities and be perfectly safe.”

“Mr. President,” Axelsson interjected, “we do not know the extent, or range, of Iran’s capabilities. Andrea’s notion that the fleet should be safe at Doha could be right – but we missed on their nuclear ambitions. I wouldn’t want to bet the safety of our fleet on our intel on the exact ranges of their defense capabilities in the gulf. The fleet needs to be able to defend itself. Furthermore, if they launch on our ships – and at this point, I am assuming that they will – we should have every right to defend ourselves – and that should include taking out any threat before it materializes. Remember, we did not start this.”

“Tom,” President Barre said, turning to his chief of staff, “set up a meeting with the Speaker and the rest of the Congressional leaders for seven tonight. Jim, you said the Israelis would be taking off in what, about ten hours?”

“That’s right; it’s now about twelve thirty in the afternoon here so that makes it about 7:30 p.m. in Israel. Colonel Jackson thought they’d be launching around six in the morning, local time.”

“Okay, six tomorrow morning over there would be 11:00 p.m. our time. By seven tonight – that’ll be just four hours before they launch – we should know if anything else has developed. At that point, I’ll let the Speaker, the Senate Majority Leader and the rest of the Congressional leaders know that Israel will be launching their attack and that we expect hostilities with Iran in the gulf and that if that arises as expected, the Fifth Fleet will have authorization to take out any naval and air threat they deem necessary – including operations within Iranian territory. However, actual offensive operations will not be authorized at this point. Is that understood Eric?”

“Yes, sir.”

“What about the Strait of Hormuz?” General Kaufman quickly added. “Tehran has long boasted that they would close the strait should something like this happen.”

“The same goes for the strait. It is a vital interest to this country – and we will defend it as such. Let Admirals Fischer and Ramsey know that both the fleet and the strait are to be defended, and that includes operations within Iranian territory, though again, no offensive operations.”

“Very good, sir. I’ll let them know.”